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Make a New Plan, Stan

Monday, October 17, 2005


CGT's Senior Gas Transmission Coordinators (TCs) create and post the pipeline inventory plan five times per day. Producing five plans a day results in 1,825 plans a year! The forecast information is necessary for the safe operation of CGT's pipeline system. This information is shown on the Pipe Ranger Operating Data page and is often used by customers to observe if the pipeline is trending toward an Operational Flow Order. Provided below is a listing of the information that contributes to each of the five plans.

Plan 1 is posted on Pipe Ranger at approximately 7:30 a.m. PT, and is based on:

  • Actual beginning inventory position for the day
  • New temperature and weather forecasts
  • Output from CGT's demand forecast models
  • Storage forecasts (based on storage operator input, when provided)

The TC Says - Please be aware that Intraday for current day, and Timely, and Evening cycle volumes for next day are not available when this plan is prepared. Additionally, Plan 1 does not reflect the anticipated results of an OFO that may be called as a result of the forecasts contained in this plan.

Plan 2 is posted on Pipe Ranger at approximately 12:30 p.m. PT, and is based on:

  • Plan 1 information
  • Updated temperature and weather data
  • Updated forecasts of demands based on models and observed trends
  • Intraday 1 cycle (scheduled volumes)
  • Timely cycle nominations (confirmed volumes)

The TC Says - If an OFO was called today for tomorrow's gas day, this plan will reflect actual and anticipated customer adjustments in supply. At this point, CGT determines if it is necessary to hold nominations to a previous cycle due to high inventory.

Plan 3 is posted on Pipe Ranger at approximately 3:30 p.m. PT, and is based on:

  • Plan 2 information
  • Updated temperature and weather data
  • Updated forecasts of demands based on models and observed trends
  • Intraday 1 cycle nominations (scheduled volumes)
  • Timely cycle nominations (scheduled volumes)

Plan 4 is posted on Pipe Ranger at approximately 10:00 p.m. PT, and is based on:

  • Plan 3 information
  • Updated forecasts of demands based on models and observed trends
  • Intraday 1 cycle nominations (scheduled volumes)
  • Intraday 2 cycle nominations (scheduled volumes)
  • Timely cycle nominations (scheduled volumes)
  • Evening cycle nominations (scheduled volumes)

Plan 5 is posted on Pipe Ranger at approximately 5:30 a.m. PT, and is based on prior plans and observed trends during the night.

  • Demand forecasts are updated based on new weather information and storage estimates.
  • This plan provides the best forecast of beginning inventory of new gas day.

The TC Says This Is Important - PG&E can experience significant changes in supply after Plan 5 that may trigger the calling of an OFO in Plan 1.



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